Prop: Josh Allen Over 267.5 passing yards ( -113 at FanDuel) He’ll have plenty of opportunities to do so again against Denver, and that’s why I’m taking the Over on his yardage prop. The Broncos do have one capable corner in Pat Surtain, but he’s no match for Stefon Diggs, and the matchups only get worse for Denver from there.Īllen is Pro Football Focus’ top-rated quarterback this year, and regardless of whether that’s underrating the mistakes he’s made, it’s clear Allen is still making plays. We have years of data to show us that Allen can push the ball down the field, particularly against weaker secondaries. The latter is almost always the smarter play, and that’s what I’m doing tonight. The question to ask is whether we are going to look at some short-term trends or believe what we know over a larger sample. Denver has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 73.6% of passes and put up an overall passer rating of 104.2, both of which also rank 32nd of 32 teams. The Broncos are dead last in the NFL when it comes to yards per play allowed, as well as yards per passing attempt. However, this is still the same team that allowed the Dolphins to score 70, let Justin Fields torch them for four touchdown passes, and gave up 31 points to the New York Jets - a team that has scored one offensive touchdown in the last three weeks. However, the Bills are still one of the NFL’s top-performing offenses, ranking third in yards per play, fifth in total points, and fifth in yards per passing attempt.ĭenver’s defense has looked improved over the last three weeks, allowing just 15 points per game during that span - even though it played the Kansas City Chiefs twice in that period. Allen is making too many mistakes, and taking unnecessary risks that have resulted in turnovers. While both stories have a kernel of truth, they obscure larger realities. Secondly, there’s the idea that the Denver Broncos have turned their season around since allowing the Miami Dolphins to put up 70 points on them back in late September. First, there’s the idea that Josh Allen hasn’t been performing up to the standards we expect of him and that has been dragging down the Buffalo Bills offense. There are two narratives that might pull you away from this prop bet for Monday Night Football. Josh Allen MNF prop pick Over 267.5 passing yards (-113) Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.Ģ1+. Allen 250+ pass yards, 2+ pass TD, 35+ rush yardsĮligible USA locations only.

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